Wednesday, October 25, 2006

BUY: DLX (NYSE), ASEI (NASDAQ), INTX (NASDAQ), CECO (NASDAQ), CRYP (NASDAQ)

Initial bank account: $37,039.81
Total cost (shares): $2,470.72 + $2,421.09 + $2,469.80 + $2,458.88 + $2,459.76 = $12,280.25
Total cost (transactions): $15 x 5 = $75
Final bank account: $24,684.56

Portfolio:

The general markets have behaved thusly since my last purchase.

  • The NASDAQ composite index climbed from 2,163.95 to 2,344.84, a gain of 8.4%. The index is still 1.1% off where it was when I started (2,370.8799).
  • The Dow Jones Industrial average climbed from 11,381.47 to 12,127.88, a gain of 6.6%. The average has risen 7.5% from where it was when I started (11,278.7695).
  • The S&P 500 index climbed from 1,302.3 to 1,377.38, a gain of 5.8%. The index is now 5.1% above where I started (1,309.93).

Ignoring transaction costs, I paid $37,735.19 for my first three purchases and, in theory, could now sell those stocks for $39,233,90: $1,498.72 or 3.97% above par. Not bad for six months, and better than a loss, but lagging behind the major indices by quite a bit.

In theory, this is a collection of businesses that tend to be more good than bad. So now we dig in and wait! It is early still; I've held the first (most troublesome) batch for only six months now.

I took my note from last time into account and wrote a tiny program to generate a list of "good" random numbers so that I can choose from the "magic" list without bias (from me anyway). I used two simple acceptance tests (yield > 10% and return > 75% or if this test was not satisfied, then yield > 20% and return > 50%), plus whether a cursory glance at MSN Money suggested the company was in decent financial and business shape (looking at stats only, not "analyst" commentary).

My method of organizing my portfolio is now a set of Access tables and queries; if I punch in current prices, I get current valuations as well as percent and actual change in prices for both individual stocks and the whole portfolio. I'll donate to anyone who has Access!

As a side note, the company Westwood One seems likely to get beaten down a bit in the next months. If it's selling appreciably (say $0.75 - $1) below where it was yesterday ($7.51), I should consider buying it next time. It's a good company. Also, might Ford (F) not get beaten down quite a bit in the next months? If the stock cheapens significantly in the next months, might it not eventually end up as a bargain?

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